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History Is Speaking to Us … Again If we want to draw benefits from history, the goal is to capture its most important lessons. Many investors point to giants like Buffett, Druckenmiller, Zweig, Dalio, Lacey Hunt, Howard Marks and so on… but few take their advice. None of these legends are infallible and each has made mistakes, but when…
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Mad World As you read this, the world is in the midst of unprecedented change. Not just here in the United States … this change will be large scale and global (and we’re not just speaking financial markets). For us to suggest we have all the answers as to what our future looks like would be foolish, though to…
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In an effort to calm nerves, I wanted to get a quick note out to clients and readers. It’s not polished – but it’s the best we have at this moment in time. In short – we’ve prepared for this; we were ready for today… Information is moving at breakneck speeds; It’s becoming increasingly difficult to write. By the…
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Change of Plans… It typically takes weeks to properly prepare our notes (I’m not a writer, our business is investing… we muddle through the writing best we can) … As I sit down to type, the evening of Thursday, February 27, 2020, I’m faced with two options; the first, finish the note I’ve worked on for multiple weeks –…
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Introduction “Psychology plays a large part in business movements, and overoptimism can only land us on the shores of overdepression.” President Herbert Hoover, 31st President of the United States of America 1/1/1926 We do our best to remind investors that financial markets only become emotional if you allow them to be… In the end, the majority of investors allow…
When was the last time you went to the bank? I mean physically walked up to a teller in a brick and mortar location? Some may answer this question easily as small businesses owners may still deposit their daily “cash” in-take, while it might take others quite a bit of time to think about it. Banking has transformed over…
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Complexity When was the last time you went to the bank? I mean physically walked up to a teller in a brick and mortar location? Some may answer this question easily as small businesses owners may still deposit their daily “cash” in-take, while it might take others quite a bit of time to think about it. Banking has transformed…
Lately, I feel like I’m on a treadmill running up hill, for as different as the catalyst which pops a bubble always is, it’s as much the same (a bubble – typically fueled by debt and overleverage) … and yet, we appear to have learned nothing. The mindset and attitudes of investors tend to be very predictable. From the…
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The More things Change… It’s been 23 years in the financial business and I often wonder what my life would be like if I was as blind and ignorant as to how equity markets functioned today, as I was in 2000/2001 when clients watched “diversified” Unit Investment Trusts (UITs) get decimated during the tech bubble? Or had I not…
Working alone leaves one quite a bit of time pondering self-beliefs. Whether we manage the bulk of our client’s financial net worth or a mere fraction of it, there is little room for bias, obtuse thinking or pride. In an effort to keep our mindset “in check” we make a concerted effort to study and approach markets from multiple…
