CURRENT NOTES
Monthly Note
- July 2026: Are You Hearing the Entire Orchestra? (7/27/2026) - Listening to the symphony Have you ever attended a symphony orchestra? If you've never played an instrument, it's easy to become captivated by whatever sounds the loudest. One moment it's the brass section commanding your attention. The next, it's the percussion. Then the strings quietly take over before the woodwinds add another layer to the performance. Individually, each section is incredibly talented. Each plays an important role. But no single instrument defines the music. The conductor understands that. Rather than focusing on one section, the conductor hears how each contributes to the larger composition. A trumpet may carry the melody… Continue Reading
- December 2025: Odometer vs. Speedometer! (12/31/2025) - Odometer vs. Speedometer! Most people don’t drive by staring at the odometer … they watch the speedometer. The odometer tells you how far you’ve gone. The speedometer tells you what’s happening now. Markets work in a similar fashion. The level matters, but the rate of change in both growth and inflation is what actually alters behavior, expectations, and decision making. Every cycle has a moment when the narrative stops evolving. Inflation is assumed to be sticky. Prices are assumed to stay high. Growth is assumed to be fragile. Once assumptions harden, debate narrows … and that is often when the… Continue Reading
Quarterly Report
- Q1 2026: The board didn’t change; the position did!!! (4/29/2026) - The Board Didn’t Change… The Position Did Last month, we framed the environment through a game of chess … not because markets are a game—but because the analogy holds: The outcome is rarely determined by a single move … but by the position that move creates. We also noted: When pressure builds, it doesn’t create weakness—it reveals it. Over the past several weeks, the pressure has only intensified … geopolitical headlines have accelerated … energy markets have moved violently. Narratives have grown louder… and more certain … and yet—markets are higher! Which raises a simple question: If the story hasn’t… Continue Reading
