CURRENT NOTES
Monthly Note
- June 2026: Recalculating.. (6/26/2026) - Recalculating If you’ve driven anywhere unfamiliar in the last decade, you’ve probably had the same experience. You enter a destination into your GPS, pull out of the driveway, and begin following the route. A few miles later, traffic builds unexpectedly … construction appears … an accident closes a lane … or maybe you simply miss a turn. Almost instantly, the GPS responds with a single word: “Recalculating.” What’s remarkable is what happens next … the GPS doesn’t become emotionally attached to the original route. It doesn’t insist that the first set of directions was correct. It doesn’t argue with reality.… Continue Reading
- December 2025: Odometer vs. Speedometer! (12/31/2025) - Odometer vs. Speedometer! Most people don’t drive by staring at the odometer … they watch the speedometer. The odometer tells you how far you’ve gone. The speedometer tells you what’s happening now. Markets work in a similar fashion. The level matters, but the rate of change in both growth and inflation is what actually alters behavior, expectations, and decision making. Every cycle has a moment when the narrative stops evolving. Inflation is assumed to be sticky. Prices are assumed to stay high. Growth is assumed to be fragile. Once assumptions harden, debate narrows … and that is often when the… Continue Reading
Quarterly Report
- Q1 2026: The board didn’t change; the position did!!! (4/29/2026) - The Board Didn’t Change… The Position Did Last month, we framed the environment through a game of chess … not because markets are a game—but because the analogy holds: The outcome is rarely determined by a single move … but by the position that move creates. We also noted: When pressure builds, it doesn’t create weakness—it reveals it. Over the past several weeks, the pressure has only intensified … geopolitical headlines have accelerated … energy markets have moved violently. Narratives have grown louder… and more certain … and yet—markets are higher! Which raises a simple question: If the story hasn’t… Continue Reading
