CURRENT NOTES
Monthly Note
- The move Everyone misread! (3/25/2026) - The move everyone misread In 1997, Garry Kasparov—the best chess player in the world—sat down across from a machine: IBM’s Deep Blue. Kasparov wasn’t just a champion—he was the champion. The consensus from commentators, grandmasters, and analysts alike was clear: experience, intuition, and human judgment would ultimately win. Machines could calculate… but they couldn’t understand. Then came Game 2. Deep Blue made a move that stunned everyone watching. It didn’t follow conventional logic. It didn’t “look” right. Commentators scrambled to explain it—assigning deep strategic brilliance to what appeared to be a masterstroke. Kasparov saw the same thing. And that’s where… Continue Reading
- December 2025: Odometer vs. Speedometer! (12/31/2025) - Odometer vs. Speedometer! Most people don’t drive by staring at the odometer … they watch the speedometer. The odometer tells you how far you’ve gone. The speedometer tells you what’s happening now. Markets work in a similar fashion. The level matters, but the rate of change in both growth and inflation is what actually alters behavior, expectations, and decision making. Every cycle has a moment when the narrative stops evolving. Inflation is assumed to be sticky. Prices are assumed to stay high. Growth is assumed to be fragile. Once assumptions harden, debate narrows … and that is often when the… Continue Reading
Quarterly Report
- Q1 2026: The board didn’t change; the position did!!! (4/29/2026) - The Board Didn’t Change… The Position Did Last month, we framed the environment through a game of chess … not because markets are a game—but because the analogy holds: The outcome is rarely determined by a single move … but by the position that move creates. We also noted: When pressure builds, it doesn’t create weakness—it reveals it. Over the past several weeks, the pressure has only intensified … geopolitical headlines have accelerated … energy markets have moved violently. Narratives have grown louder… and more certain … and yet—markets are higher! Which raises a simple question: If the story hasn’t… Continue Reading
