“Because of the Fed’s interventions, market prices and credit spreads don’t have the information content that we think they have. The Fed is mucking up what prices mean.” Peter Fisher, former Fed Executive VP, Bank for Int’l Settlements, US Treasury, etc. “There is a bear market out there – it’s in true price discovery.” David Rosenberg, former chief economist…
History Is Speaking to Us … Again If we want to draw benefits from history, the goal is to capture its most important lessons. Many investors point to giants like Buffett, Druckenmiller, Zweig, Dalio, Lacey Hunt, Howard Marks and so on… but few take their advice. None of these legends are infallible and each has made mistakes, but when…
When was the last time you went to the bank? I mean physically walked up to a teller in a brick and mortar location? Some may answer this question easily as small businesses owners may still deposit their daily “cash” in-take, while it might take others quite a bit of time to think about it. Banking has transformed over…
Lately, I feel like I’m on a treadmill running up hill, for as different as the catalyst which pops a bubble always is, it’s as much the same (a bubble – typically fueled by debt and overleverage) … and yet, we appear to have learned nothing. The mindset and attitudes of investors tend to be very predictable. From the…
Working alone leaves one quite a bit of time pondering self-beliefs. Whether we manage the bulk of our client’s financial net worth or a mere fraction of it, there is little room for bias, obtuse thinking or pride. In an effort to keep our mindset “in check” we make a concerted effort to study and approach markets from multiple…
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If you knew the odds of any specific outcome was 85% in one direction or another, what would you do? In previous notes we’ve broached the subject of discounting outcomes; today we’re going to discuss placing the odds in our favor, displaying it in real time… We titled a section, “Cloudy with a chance of Meatballs” in our 4Q2017…
Watching waves crash can have a very peaceful, calming effect on most people… The rhythmic, circular motion of massive energy passing through enormous bodies of water manifesting as thunderous booms or tiny ripples at the sandy shoreline; for those who have never experienced them, I would recommend you give them a try. The wind, the sounds, the salt air,…
Today we’re going to talk to you a little about the Fed. We’ll keep it high-level as we intend to go into much greater detail in our upcoming quarterly; but for now, please find our thoughts below… I have to say that it was nice taking a breather from discussing the “Fed” the last month or so. Though, given the FOMC’s decision on interest rates…
As a father of two little girls, I constantly think about the lessons I would like them to remember if something were to ever happen to me. Critical thinking and the ability to question should be at the top of their list. My wish is that they are firm in their convictions, rather than simply falling in line with…
