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Q4 2020 : THE EPOCH OF INCREDULITY

THE EPOCH OF INCREDULITY Epoch: a period of time in history or a person’s life, typically one marked by notable events or particular characteristics. Incredulity: the state of being unwilling or unable to believe something. Epoch of Incredulity: A period of time in one’s life, marked by a notable event where it became nearly impossible to believe your own…

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December 2020 : Just give it a week…

When’s the Monthly? I’m a fan… Recently I received the above question asking when the December monthly would be released. Our intent was to hold our thoughts for a few weeks, but given the question, after further consideration we felt it important to briefly explain why… No, we haven’t taken any time off. Last month we attempted the impossible;…

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November 2020 : Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs – The Sequel

The Sequel … We published our 4Q2017 note titled, “Hero to heel in just under a week”, later than usual due to compliance restrictions as we opened our doors. I resigned from my previous firm the evening of January 25th, 2018 the day before markets “topped” as we headed directly into “#Volmageddon”. By the time we had received approval…

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Q3 2020 : That Tingling Sensation…OUT OF BULLETS?!

THAT TINGLING SENSATION…  Many of us have a tingling sensation on the back of our necks that something is not quite right with today’s markets and economy. Unemployment is high, bankruptcies are rising to record levels, debt and leverage are at WW2 levels, and the government’s fiscal deficit is too obscene to print here. Yet markets flirt with all-time…

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September 2020 : Time and Patience

“Time and Patience are our assets right now.” OSAM 1Q2020 In our 1Q2020 quarterly, we described how “TIME and PATIENCE will be one of the more valuable ASSET CLASSES moving forward”. It has been our goal since opening our doors to separate the “noise” from true economic data in an effort to educate investors and to help them make…

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August 2020 : MAYDAY! MAYDAY! MAYDAY!

MAYDAY! MAYDAY! MAYDAY! In the early 1920’s, a senior radio officer at London’s Croydon Airport, Frederick Stanley Mockford, was asked by his superiors to think of a word, easily understood by all pilots and those on the ground, which conveyed distress during an emergency. With much of the air travel in and out of London’s Croydon at the time…

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Q2 2020 : Slightly out of the ordinary…

Slightly out of the ordinary…  I write these notes for numerous reasons; first and foremost, to disseminate information; educating and coaching clients is my top priority. Admittedly, there is a marketing slant; reading, research and corresponding with clients takes up quite a bit of our time, so if our work stands out and resonates with readers and we can…

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June 2020 : Dead Cat? Or New Bull?

“Because of the Fed’s interventions, market prices and credit spreads don’t have the information content that we think they have. The Fed is mucking up what prices mean.” Peter Fisher, former Fed Executive VP, Bank for Int’l Settlements, US Treasury, etc. “There is a bear market out there – it’s in true price discovery.” David Rosenberg, former chief economist…

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May 2020 : History is Speaking to Us … Again! It’s Your Choice…

History Is Speaking to Us … Again  If we want to draw benefits from history, the goal is to capture its most important lessons. Many investors point to giants like Buffett, Druckenmiller, Zweig, Dalio, Lacey Hunt, Howard Marks and so on… but few take their advice. None of these legends are infallible and each has made mistakes, but when…

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Q1 2020 : We’ve only just begun… Cha cha changes

Mad World As you read this, the world is in the midst of unprecedented change. Not just here in the United States … this change will be large scale and global (and we’re not just speaking financial markets). For us to suggest we have all the answers as to what our future looks like would be foolish, though to…

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