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THAT TINGLING SENSATION… Many of us have a tingling sensation on the back of our necks that something is not quite right with today’s markets and economy. Unemployment is high, bankruptcies are rising to record levels, debt and leverage are at WW2 levels, and the government’s fiscal deficit is too obscene to print here. Yet markets flirt with all-time…
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“Time and Patience are our assets right now.” OSAM 1Q2020 In our 1Q2020 quarterly, we described how “TIME and PATIENCE will be one of the more valuable ASSET CLASSES moving forward”. It has been our goal since opening our doors to separate the “noise” from true economic data in an effort to educate investors and to help them make…
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MAYDAY! MAYDAY! MAYDAY! In the early 1920’s, a senior radio officer at London’s Croydon Airport, Frederick Stanley Mockford, was asked by his superiors to think of a word, easily understood by all pilots and those on the ground, which conveyed distress during an emergency. With much of the air travel in and out of London’s Croydon at the time…
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Slightly out of the ordinary… I write these notes for numerous reasons; first and foremost, to disseminate information; educating and coaching clients is my top priority. Admittedly, there is a marketing slant; reading, research and corresponding with clients takes up quite a bit of our time, so if our work stands out and resonates with readers and we can…
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“Because of the Fed’s interventions, market prices and credit spreads don’t have the information content that we think they have. The Fed is mucking up what prices mean.” Peter Fisher, former Fed Executive VP, Bank for Int’l Settlements, US Treasury, etc. “There is a bear market out there – it’s in true price discovery.” David Rosenberg, former chief economist…
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History Is Speaking to Us … Again If we want to draw benefits from history, the goal is to capture its most important lessons. Many investors point to giants like Buffett, Druckenmiller, Zweig, Dalio, Lacey Hunt, Howard Marks and so on… but few take their advice. None of these legends are infallible and each has made mistakes, but when…
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Mad World As you read this, the world is in the midst of unprecedented change. Not just here in the United States … this change will be large scale and global (and we’re not just speaking financial markets). For us to suggest we have all the answers as to what our future looks like would be foolish, though to…
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In an effort to calm nerves, I wanted to get a quick note out to clients and readers. It’s not polished – but it’s the best we have at this moment in time. In short – we’ve prepared for this; we were ready for today… Information is moving at breakneck speeds; It’s becoming increasingly difficult to write. By the…
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Change of Plans… It typically takes weeks to properly prepare our notes (I’m not a writer, our business is investing… we muddle through the writing best we can) … As I sit down to type, the evening of Thursday, February 27, 2020, I’m faced with two options; the first, finish the note I’ve worked on for multiple weeks –…
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Introduction “Psychology plays a large part in business movements, and overoptimism can only land us on the shores of overdepression.” President Herbert Hoover, 31st President of the United States of America 1/1/1926 We do our best to remind investors that financial markets only become emotional if you allow them to be… In the end, the majority of investors allow…
