CURRENT NOTES
Monthly Note
- November 2025: The data went dark…NOT REALITY! (11/30/2025) - Forty-three days … no scoreboard There’s something uniquely American about shutting down the government for more than 40 days … only to emerge with the exact same deal you could have signed before shutting the entire place down. It’s legislative tail-chasing at a national scale … like watching a dog spin itself dizzy for six straight weeks, collapse in the yard, then proudly trot over with the look of “you see that? I did that.” It would almost be funny if it weren’t so familiar. At this point, calling it “inefficient” feels generous. The whole episode felt like watching a… Continue Reading
Quarterly Report
- Q3 2025: The runway lights are lying! (10/28/2025) - The Runway Lights Are Lying On a clear day, any pilot can land a plane. It’s the hazy nights that separate instinct from discipline. Pilots call it the “runway-lights illusion” … the brighter the lights, the more your eyes insist you’re perfectly lined up, even as the instruments tell a different story. That’s when you decide what to trust: either the glow… or the gauges?! Lately, markets have been flying by the glow. For months on end, headlines have stated the labor market was “balanced,” Trumps tariffs would significantly “raise inflation,” and the Fed would be “patient.” The story was… Continue Reading
