CURRENT NOTES
Monthly Note
- December 2025: Odometer vs. Speedometer! (12/31/2025) - Odometer vs. Speedometer! Most people don’t drive by staring at the odometer … they watch the speedometer. The odometer tells you how far you’ve gone. The speedometer tells you what’s happening now. Markets work in a similar fashion. The level matters, but the rate of change in both growth and inflation is what actually alters behavior, expectations, and decision making. Every cycle has a moment when the narrative stops evolving. Inflation is assumed to be sticky. Prices are assumed to stay high. Growth is assumed to be fragile. Once assumptions harden, debate narrows … and that is often when the… Continue Reading
Quarterly Report
- Q4 2025: Feelings often lag Reality! (1/27/2026) - Always darkest before the dawn There’s an old saying that it’s always darkest before the dawn. Not because the night suddenly gets worse, but because human perception is at its weakest just before conditions begin to change. Markets behave the same way. They tend to stabilize and recover before confidence returns. Prices respond to improving conditions long before people feel them. By the time things feel better, markets have often already moved. That disconnect — between perception and process — is where we find ourselves today. There’s a strange tension in the economy right now, and it’s one we see confuse investors more… Continue Reading
