CURRENT NOTES
Monthly Note
- September 2025: When structure fails, What’s your plan?! (9/28/2025) - The collapse you don’t see coming In February 2021, Winter Storm Uri rolled into Texas. Temperatures plunged, demand spiked, and the “fortified” power grid — the one officials swore was reliable — collapsed almost instantly. Millions were left without heat, water, or electricity. People weren’t caught off guard because there hadn’t been warnings — they were caught because they trusted a system that was never built to withstand real stress. That’s how cracks work. They don’t always scream until they snap. And we’ve been talking about cracks for years. In 2Q 2017, we warned about “cracks in the dam” —… Continue Reading
Quarterly Report
- Q3 2025: The runway lights are lying! (10/28/2025) - The Runway Lights Are Lying On a clear day, any pilot can land a plane. It’s the hazy nights that separate instinct from discipline. Pilots call it the “runway-lights illusion” … the brighter the lights, the more your eyes insist you’re perfectly lined up, even as the instruments tell a different story. That’s when you decide what to trust: either the glow… or the gauges?! Lately, markets have been flying by the glow. For months on end, headlines have stated the labor market was “balanced,” Trumps tariffs would significantly “raise inflation,” and the Fed would be “patient.” The story was… Continue Reading
